Euro Watch

I've slowly averaged into a long EU position over the last couple weeks. I began averaging in @ 1.35, there is a high likelihood that the market will retest it's latest low of 1.3425, (about a 95% chance), by April 15th, this year, possibly even 1.325.

There were rumors floating around the past couple of weeks about large net specs dumping their long inventory in EU, however, the last two COT reports only show a ~7500 contract decrease. Looking to EU futures for clues about upcoming rates, shows a general bullish sentiment. We've seen net buying since early January on increasing open interest. The high volume price of the last month is @ 1.362, price is currently trading above that level.

Many analysts are critical of the vague nature of any action plans coming out of the EU in regards to their debt crisis, sidelining some speculative interest, however, many also have their eyes set on a possible impending rate hike.

It's impossible to know for certain how the various fundamental events will play out, but I maintain a bullish outlook. Goldman's 1.40 by May prediction leaves plenty of time for another dip during this hawkish EU phase.

It is highly likely that the market will clear 1.375 this week, but I think at this point in time that any gains will be limited.

My personal game plan is to add more to my long play on the next dip, if it materializes that is.